Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034031
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D. Stainforth;S. Chapman;N. Watkins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Stainforth;S. Chapman;N. Watkins
气候变化给全社会的决策者带来了挑战，不仅是在为未来的气候做准备时，甚至在为当前的气候进行规划时也是如此。在做出气候敏感决策时，政策制定者和适应规划者将受益于当地尺度和特定用户分位数（例如最热/最冷的 5% 的天数）和阈值（例如高于 28°C 的天数）的信息，而不仅仅是平均变化。在这里，我们将对天气的观测转化为对气候变化的观测，提供自 1950 年以来欧洲各地气候温度分布形状变化的地图。提供此类观测信息对于支持旨在应对当今气候的稳健决策非常有价值，同时还提供了可以判断和解释气候预测方法的数据。最热的夏季比最冷的夏季变暖得更快的一般说法是通过揭示变暖最大的区域如何依赖于分位数和阈值来做出相关决策的。在从法国北部到丹麦响应最大的地带，气温分布最热的日子里温度变化至少为2°C，是同期全球平均变化的四倍多。冬季，最冷的夜晚升温最快，尤其是在斯堪的纳维亚半岛。
Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia.