Assessment of the effects of severe winter disasters (dzud) on public health in Mongolia based on loss of livestock
Assessment of the effects of severe winter disasters (dzud) on public health in Mongolia based on loss of livestock
复制标题
根据牲畜损失评估严重冬季灾害（dzud）对蒙古公共卫生的影响
DOI：
10.1017/dmp.2016.5
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
and H. Mu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otani;S.;K. Onishi;Y. Kurozawa;Y. Kurosaki;T. Bat-Oyun;M. Shinoda;and H. Mu
目的 2009 年至 2010 年，蒙古经历了最严重的冬季自然灾害（dzud）之一。准确评估暴风雨对人类生命和公共健康影响的风险是困难的。本研究旨在通过评估牲畜损失来评估蒙古暴风雨的公共卫生风险。方法我们分析了蒙古所有21个省和乌兰巴托的数据，并比较了婴儿死亡率的变化（2009-2010年）和牲畜数量的下降（与上一年相比的百分比变化），其中包括马、牛、骆驼、绵羊和山羊（2009-2010年） 和/或气象数据。我们还评估了蒙古国2001-2012年婴儿死亡率、牲畜数量和食品消费趋势之间的关联。结果婴儿死亡率的变化与2010年各类牲畜数量的减少率呈正相关。平均气温和总降水量与婴儿死亡率的变化无关。从2001年至2012年的趋势来看，婴儿死亡率与牲畜数量和奶制品消费量之间存在显着的正相关关系。结论蒙古国牲畜减少和奶制品短缺导致的营养不良可能影响了以婴儿死亡率为代表的公共卫生。 （灾难医学公共卫生准备。2016；10：549–552）
ObjectiveMongolia experienced one of its most severe natural winter disasters (dzud) in 2009-2010. It is difficult to accurately assess the risk of the effects of dzud on human lives and public health. This study aimed to evaluate the Mongolian public health risks of dzud by assessing livestock loss.MethodsWe analyzed data from all 21 provinces and Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia and compared the changes in infant mortality (2009-2010) and the decline in the numbers of livestock (percentage change from the previous year), which included horses, cattle, camels, sheep, and goats (2009-2010) and/or meteorological data. We also evaluated the association among the trends in the infant mortality rate, the number of livestock, and foodstuff consumption throughout Mongolia (2001-2012).ResultsThe change in the infant mortality rate was positively correlated with the rate of decreasing numbers of each type of livestock in 2010. Average temperature and total precipitation were not related to the change in the infant mortality rate. In the trend from 2001 to 2012, there was a significant positive correlation between the infant mortality rate and the number of livestock and the consumption of milk products.ConclusionsLoss of livestock and shortage of milk products leading to malnutrition might have affected public health as typified by infant mortality in Mongolia. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:549–552)