Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology.
Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology.
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DOI：
10.1093/biosci/biu192
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
10.1
通讯作者：
Grimm V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stillman RA;Railsback SF;Giske J;Berger U;Grimm V
生态学家迫切需要更好的预测环境变化如何影响生物多样性的能力。我们研究了基于个体的生态学（IBE），这是一种研究范式，它通过使用基于个体的模型（ibm）来表示个体与环境以及彼此之间如何相互作用而产生的生态动态，从而保证了更好的预测能力。ibm的一个关键优势是预测的基础——个体生物的适应度最大化——比其他模型所依赖的经验关系更普遍、更可靠。案例研究说明了长期IBE项目的有效性和预测性成功。这些开创性的项目有三个阶段：概念化、实施和多样化。模型的持续验证贯穿于这些阶段。使IBE更具生产力的突破包括用于描述和验证ibm的标准、针对个体特征和行为的改进和标准化理论、软件工具，以及一般化的而不是特定于系统的ibm。我们提供了追求IBE的指导方针和未来IBE研究的愿景。
Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions—fitness maximization by individual organisms—is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research.