Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
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DOI：
10.1257/mac.4.3.66
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Olken, Benjamin A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dell, Melissa;Jones, Benjamin F.;Olken, Benjamin A.
本文利用各国境内气温的历史波动来确定其对总体经济成果的影响。我们发现三个主要结果。首先，气温升高大大降低了贫穷国家的经济增长。其次，气温升高可能会降低生长速度，而不仅仅是产量水平。第三，气温升高会产生广泛影响，减少农业产出、工业产出和政治稳定。这些发现为有关气候在经济发展中的作用的争论提供了信息，并表明气温升高可能对贫穷国家产生重大负面影响。
This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries.