Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake
Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake
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DOI：
10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6
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发表时间：
2020-05
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Michio Naoi;Keiichi Sato;Y. Tanaka;H. Matsuura;Shingo Nagamatsu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michio Naoi;Keiichi Sato;Y. Tanaka;H. Matsuura;Shingo Nagamatsu
本文探讨了2012年修订的损害预测的预期南海海槽巨型逆冲断层地震的影响，随后在日本沿海地区的城市间迁移。我们发现，2012年修订后，预测的海啸高度增加，而不是预期的地震运动，与随后的净移民减少有关。虽然在整个研究期间，海啸预测对迁入移民的影响一直在减少，但对迁出移民的影响只是暂时的。此外，工作年龄的人更有可能应对海啸风险，并避免在修订后搬到海啸风险高的城市。
This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.