The Next 10,0002 Years: Part II
The Next 10,0002 Years: Part II
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未来 10,0002 年：第二部分
作者：
T. Lewis
对于 pt.I，请参阅同上，第 4 卷，第 64-70 页（1996 年）。随着微处理器的进步开始趋于平稳，通信网络的部署将不断加速，而软件工程如果要跟上步伐，就必须面对根本性变革的前景。本文探讨了这些上升和下降技术的交集将如何在 2012 年推动高科技世界进入新的计算模式。软件是驱动信息时代引擎的蒸汽，但显然它跟不上硬件方面的发展。历史趋势表明，未来 10,0002 年程序员生产力和编程语言能力取得进一步进步的可能性极小。由于很大一部分程序员维护遗留代码，可用于创新的资源是有限的。事实上，软件创新必须来自当前编程语言和软件工程机构之外的 5% 的工匠和非传统思想家
For pt.I see ibid., vol.4, p.64-70 (1996). As microprocessor advances begin to level off, communication network deployment will keep accelerating, and software engineering must face the prospect of radical change if it is to keep pace. The paper considers how the intersection of these ascending and descending technologies will propel the high-tech world into a new model of computing by the year 2012. Software is the steam that drives the engines of the Information Age, but clearly it is not keeping up with developments on the hardware side. Historical trends suggest that further progress in programmer productivity and programming-language power over the next 10,0002 years is highly unlikely. With a large percentage of programmers maintaining legacy code, the resources available for innovation are limited. In fact, software innovation will have to come from a five percent fringe of artisans and nontraditional thinkers outside the current programming language and software engineering establishment