At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self-Defense Against Russia
At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self-Defense Against Russia
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DOI：
10.1111/ajps.12832
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发表时间：
2023-10-19
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Mueller-Crepon, Carl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dill, Janina;Howlett, Marnie;Mueller-Crepon, Carl
面对外来侵略的民众如何看待自卫的成本和收益？在西方国家，战争支持已被证明遵循成本效益计算，类似于道德原则的比例。相反，一个明确的立场意味着支持自卫，不管代价如何。为了评估面临外部侵略的人群遵循哪些道德原则，我们在2022年7月对1，160名乌克兰人进行了联合实验。我们研究了对乌克兰可能对俄罗斯采取的不同战略的支持，这些战略在政治自治和领土完整以及三个成本方面有所不同：平民和军事死亡以及核风险。我们发现，乌克兰人不会用自治或领土来换取这些成本。一种新的方法来排列联合属性，计算“嵌套”的边缘手段，表明受访者断然拒绝政治或领土的让步，无论成本。这提供了第一个实验证据，证明抵抗外部侵略的人口不会将战争结果纳入成本效益计算。
How do populations facing external aggression view the costs and benefits of self-defense? In Western countries, war support has been shown to follow cost-benefit calculations, resembling the moral principle of proportionality. A categorical position, in contrast, means supporting self-defense regardless of the costs. To evaluate which moral principle populations facing external aggression follow, we conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,160 Ukrainians in July 2022. We examine support for different strategies Ukraine could pursue against Russia, which vary regarding the political autonomy and territorial integrity they afford and three costs: civilian and military fatalities, and nuclear risk. We find that Ukrainians do not trade off autonomy or territory against these costs. A new method to rank conjoint-attributes, computing "nested" marginal means, shows that respondents categorically reject political or territorial concessions, regardless of costs. This provides first experimental evidence that populations resisting external aggression do not subject war outcomes to cost-benefit calculations.