Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century
Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Orr, James C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kwiatkowski, Lester;Orr, James C.
海洋酸化将如何影响海洋生物取决于碳酸盐化学的长期平均值和短期时间变异性的变化(1-8)。尽管对大气二氧化碳和气候变化的十年到百年的响应受到观测和模型(1，9)的限制，但对季节性(10-12)的相应变化，特别是对pH值的变化，我们知之甚少。在这里，我们通过分析9个地球系统模型(ESM)来评估后者，这些模型被迫在一切照旧的情况下排放(13)。在21世纪，表层-海洋pH的季节周期平均减弱了16+/-7%，而氢离子浓度[H+]的季节周期被放大了81+/-16%。同时，文石饱和状态(Omega(Arag))的季节幅度除了在亚热带地区被放大外，其他地区都被减弱。这些不同的变化源于这些变量对大气二氧化碳和气候变化的敏感性在区域上的不同，以及主要控制变量(温度、溶解无机碳和碱度)在季节极端情况下的不同趋势。预计的季节性变化将在夏季加剧[H+]增加对海洋生物的影响，并在冬季缓解影响，尽管高纬度地区的情况正好相反。同样，在海洋的大部分地区，欧米茄(Arag)下降的影响在夏季可能会加剧，在冬季可能会减弱。
How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry(1-8). Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO2 and climate change is constrained by observations and models(1,9), little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality(10-12), particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario(13). During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 +/- 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H+] was amplified by 81 +/- 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state (Omega(arag)) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO2 and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H+] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining Omega(arag) are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter.