Trade with Low Wage Economies, Employment and Productivity in UK Manufacturing
Trade with Low Wage Economies, Employment and Productivity in UK Manufacturing
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与低工资经济体的贸易、英国制造业的就业和生产力
DOI：
10.1111/1468-0297.00356
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Wright
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Hine;P. Wright
过去二十年来，英国的就业模式发生了重大转变，加强了经济的服务业基础，但在此过程中，劳动力中的许多群体面临着巨大的调整压力。制造业经历了大规模的失业：1979年，该行业有726万个工作岗位，到1992年，约有280万个，即40%的工作岗位消失了。对一些地区和工人群体的影响较为严重，非熟练工人尤其难以获得再就业，其相对收入有所下降。在此期间，失业人数迅速增加，1983年达到310万人的高峰，但在随后的大部分时间里仍保持在200万人以上。这些发展是由若干国内和国际因素推动的。技术进步和制度变革当然是主要因素。本文讨论的一个关键问题是，来自低工资经济体的进口竞争迅速增长所起的作用。如果低工资竞争使英国的消费从国产产品转向进口产品，那么英国制造业的就业岗位将会流失。虽然这最终会导致英国劳动力的重新部署和更高效的使用，但它至少会造成过渡性失业。此外，置换效应将对提供中间产品的上游产业和进口竞争产业使用的商业服务产生连锁效应和乘数效应（Greenhalgh 1994）。随着英国公司试图通过提高x效率和加速技术创新来捍卫其市场地位，进口竞争部门的就业可能会进一步受到影响。由此带来的生产率提高，虽然在长期内使工作更有保障，但在短期内可能会导致更多的工作岗位流失，因为企业可以用更少的工人来维持产出。与这些变化有关的调整成本将取决于劳动力市场的灵活性。当然，调整和变化是现代市场经济的正常特征，并且存在抵消的一般均衡效应。但仍有人可能担心，来自发展中国家日益激烈的竞争的规模和速度，会给英国制造业的资源所有者带来过高的短期调整成本，或者至少会引发保护主义反弹，危及英国经济向更开放方向发展的进程。
The pattern of UK employment has been significantly transformed over the last two decades, strengthening the services base of the economy but in the process imposing significant adjustment pressures on many groups in the labour force. The manufacturing sector has experienced large scale job losses: of the 7.26 million jobs in the sector in 1979, some 2.8 million, or 40%, had disappeared by 1992. The impact on some regions and groups of workers has been severe unskilled workers especially found it difficult to obtain re-employment, and their relative earnings have declined. During this period unemployment levels increased rapidly, peaking at 3.1 million in 1983 but remaining at over 2 million for much of the subsequent period. These developments have been driven by a number of factors, both national and internationial. Technological advance and institutional change have certainly been major factors. A key concern, addressed in this paper, has also been the role played by the rapid growth of import competition from low wage economies. To the extent that low-wage competition shifts UK consumption from domestically-manufactured to imported goods, jobs in UK manufacturing will be lost. Whilst this should eventually lead to a redeployment and more productive use of UK labour, it generates at least transitional unemployment. Moreover, the displacement effect will have knock-on, multiplier effects on upstream industries that supply intermediate products, and on business services which are used by the import-competing industry (Greenhalgh 1994). Employment in import competing sectors could further be affected as UK firms seek to defend their market position by improving X-efficiency and speeding up technological innovation. The consequent productivity gains, while making jobs more secure in the longer term, might generate additional job losses in the short-term by enabling firms to maintain output with fewer workers. The adjustment costs associated with these changes will depend on the flexibility of labour markets. Of course, adjustment and change are normal features of a modern market economy and there are offsetting general equilibrium effects. But there could still be concern that the scale and speed of rising competition from developing countries imposes excessive short-term adjustment costs on owners of resources in UK manufacturing, or at least that this might provoke a protectionist backlash thatjeopardises progress towards a more open UK economy.