Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015
Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdt486
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Lunet, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Castro, C.;Bosetti, C.;Lunet, N.
背景：在过去的几十年里，欧洲各地的食管癌发病率和死亡率趋势差异很大，性别和两种主要组织学亚型鳞状细胞癌（ESCC）和腺癌（EAC）之间存在显着差异。患者和方法：为了监测欧盟（EU）和选定欧洲国家最近的食管癌死亡率趋势并计算短期预测，我们分析了世界卫生组织（WHO）提供的数据1980-2011。我们还利用五大洲癌症发病率数据分析了整个欧洲 ESCC 和 EAC 的发病率趋势和相对权重。结果：在几个南欧和西欧国家，观察到男性食管癌死亡率长期下降趋势，而中欧死亡率直到 20 世纪 90 年代中期才有所增加，并在过去几年开始稳定或下降。在一些东部和北部国家，这一比率仍在上升。欧洲妇女的死亡率仍然相对较低，并且在大多数国家呈现稳定或下降的趋势。 2000-2004年和2005-2009年间，欧盟男性食管癌死亡率下降了7%（从5.34/10万下降到4.99/10万），欧盟女性食管癌死亡率下降了3%（从1.12/10万下降到1.09/10万）。对 2015 年的预测显示，欧盟总体男性死亡率持续下降，欧盟女性死亡率稳定，2015 年男性死亡率为 4.5/100 000 人（约 22 300 人死亡），女性死亡率为 1.1/100 000 人（约 7400 人死亡）。在北欧，EAC 目前是男性的主要组织学类型，而对于欧洲女性来说，ESCC 更为常见，并且在一些国家相应的发病率仍在增加。结论：观察到的趋势反映了欧洲国家饮酒、吸烟和超重的差异。
Background: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC).Patients and methods: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.Results: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries.Conclusion(s): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.