Responses of Hail and Storm Days to Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau
Responses of Hail and Storm Days to Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl077069
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发表时间：
2018-05
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Tian Zou;Qinghong Zhang;Wenhong Li;Jihong Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tian Zou;Qinghong Zhang;Wenhong Li;Jihong Li
人们越来越担心，由于气候变化，当地强风暴的发生可能会发生变化。青藏高原是世界上对气候变化最敏感的地区之一，近几十年来明显变暖。自1960年（1980年）以来，该地区的风暴（冰雹）日数以6.2%/10年（18.3%/10年）的速度减少。然而，是什么原因导致的风暴和冰雹在TP的频率变化在很大程度上是未知的。基于48个TP站53年的连续天气记录和再分析数据，我们首次表明，自1960年以来，风暴日的持续减少与对流层中层的干燥密切相关。进一步的分析表明，在气候变暖的情况下，冰雹日数减少是由融化水平的升高（动力学）和较弱的风切变（动力学）驱动的。这些结果表明，当气候变暖时，青藏高原上的风暴和冰雹可能会减少。
There is increasing concern that local severe storm occurrence may be changing as a result of climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world's most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region. However, what caused the frequency changes of storm and hail in the TP is largely unknown. Based on 53‐year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.