Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks
Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0351-x
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Todo, Yasuyuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Inoue, Hiroyasu;Todo, Yasuyuki
社会和经济网络可能成为负面冲击的渠道，从而使社会的复原力和可持续性恶化。本研究的重点是供应链，或企业的制造商-客户网络，并探讨这些供应链如何使自然灾害造成的生产损失在没有直接受灾害影响的地区传播和持续。我们将基于代理的模型应用于日本近100万家企业的实际供应链，以估计2011年东日本大地震的直接和间接影响。然后，我们采用相同的模型来预测的影响，南海海槽地震，一个巨大的地震预计将在不久的将来袭击日本的主要工业城市。我们发现，由于传播灾害对生产的间接影响（10.6%的国内生产总值的情况下，南开地震）大大大于其直接影响（0.5%）。我们的模拟分析比较实际的网络与假设的网络表明，这些间接的影响是更加突出和持久的供应链的特点是无标度属性，中间产品之间的替代困难，和复杂的网络周期。
Social and economic networks can be a channel of negative shocks and thus deteriorate resilience and sustainability in societies. This study focuses on supply chains, or supplier-customer networks of firms and examines how these supply chains enable production losses caused by natural disasters to propagate and persist in regions not directly affected by the disaster. We apply an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly one million firms in Japan to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. We then employ the same model to predict the effect of the Nankai Trough earthquake, a mega earthquake predicted to hit major industrial cities in Japan in the near future. We find that the indirect effects of the disasters on production due to propagation (10.6% of gross domestic product in the case of the Nankai earthquake) are substantially larger than their direct effects (0.5%). Our simulation analyses to compare the actual network with hypothetical networks suggest that these indirect effects are more prominent and persistent when supply chains are characterized by scale-free properties, difficulty in substitution among intermediate products, and complex cycles in networks.