Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa.
Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa.
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DOI：
10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288
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发表时间：
2014-09-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Althaus, Christian L
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作者：
Althaus, Christian L
2014年西非埃博拉病毒（EBOV）爆发是迄今为止埃博拉病毒属最大的爆发。为了更好地了解感染在受影响国家的传播情况，必须了解在没有和有控制措施的情况下，受感染的指示病例产生的继发病例的数量，即，基本有效再生数。在这项研究中，我描述了EBOV流行使用SEIR（易感染暴露感染恢复）模型，并适合该模型的感染病例和死亡在几内亚，塞拉利昂和利比里亚的最新报告的数据。几内亚、塞拉利昂和利比里亚的基本生殖数的最大似然估计值分别为1.51（95%置信区间[CI]：1.50-1.52）、2.53（95% CI：2.41-2.67）和1.59（95% CI：1.57-1.60）。该模型表明，在几内亚和塞拉利昂，有效繁殖数可能分别在2014年5月底和7月下降到1左右。然而，在利比里亚，该模型估计到2014年8月底，有效繁殖数不会下降。这表明，利比里亚的控制工作需要大幅改善，以阻止目前的疫情。
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.