Glacio‐hydrological model calibration and evaluation
Glacio‐hydrological model calibration and evaluation
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DOI：
10.1002/wat2.1483
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发表时间：
2020-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Tiel;K. Stahl;D. Freudiger;J. Seibert
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Tiel;K. Stahl;D. Freudiger;J. Seibert
冰川对于下游水资源至关重要。水文建模对于更好地了解和预测这些快速变化的系统中的水资源是必要的，但对冰川流域进行建模尤其具有挑战性。在这里，我们回顾了世界各地流域的大量冰川水文模型研究（145 篇出版物）。模型面临的主要挑战包括由于观测数据稀缺而导致输入数据（主要是降水）的高度不确定性。因此，在冰雪积聚和融化过程参数化竞争中，用模型误差错误地补偿输入的风险特别高。建模者使用了一系列校准和验证方法来解决这个问题。审查显示，虽然大部分（约 35%）所审查的研究仅使用水流数据来评估模型性能，但大多数研究（约 50%）使用了与雪和冰川相关的附加数据来约束模型参数。这些数据用于各种校准策略，包括逐步校准和多信号校准。尽管冰川水文模型研究的主要目的是评估未来气候变化的影响，但模型性能评估中很少考虑长期变化。总体而言，更精确地描述如何使用哪些数据进行模型评估将有助于解释模拟结果及其不确定性，从而支持水资源管理。此外，需要对校准方法进行系统分析，以阐明哪种方法效果最好以及原因。满足这一需求将提高我们对冰川流域的系统理解和模型模拟。
Glaciers are essential for downstream water resources. Hydrological modeling is necessary for a better understanding and for future projections of the water resources in these rapidly changing systems, but modeling glacierized catchments is especially challenging. Here we review a wealth of glacio‐hydrological modeling studies (145 publications) in catchments around the world. Major model challenges include a high uncertainty in the input data, mainly precipitation, due to scarce observations. Consequently, the risk of wrongly compensating input with model errors in competing snow and ice accumulation and melt process parameterization is particularly high. Modelers have used a range of calibration and validation approaches to address this issue. The review revealed that while a large part (~35%) of the reviewed studies used only streamflow data to evaluate model performances, most studies (~50%) have used additional data related to snow and glaciers to constrain model parameters. These data were employed in a variety of calibration strategies, including stepwise and multi‐signal calibration. Although the primary aim of glacio‐hydrological modeling studies is to assess future climate change impacts, long‐term changes have rarely been taken into account in model performance evaluations. Overall, a more precise description of which data are used how for model evaluation would facilitate the interpretation of the simulation results and their uncertainty, which in turn would support water resources management. Moreover, there is a need for systematic analyses of calibration approaches to disentangle what works best and why. Addressing this need will improve our system understanding and model simulations of glacierized catchments.