A DEFT Way to Forecast Solar Flares
A DEFT Way to Forecast Solar Flares
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DOI：
10.3847/1538-4357/ac2840
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Krista;Matthew Chih
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Krista;Matthew Chih
太阳耀斑被认为与地球上一些最严重的空间天气危害有关。这些危险，包括无线电中断和高能粒子事件，可能在耀斑开始几分钟后开始。因此，耀斑事件的识别和预报具有重要意义。在本文中，我们介绍了探测和极紫外耀斑跟踪(DEFT)工具，它允许我们利用高空间和时间分辨率的极端紫外线(EUV)太阳观测来识别耀斑特征及其前兆。DIFT的独特优势在于它能够识别可能导致太阳喷发的微小但重大的EUV强度变化。此外，该工具可以识别干扰的位置，并区分在多个位置同时发生的事件。该算法分析从GOES-R卫星上的太阳紫外线成像仪获得的高时间步调观测结果。在2017年观测到的61个不同级别耀斑的研究中，“主要的”极紫外耀斑信号(那些在时间上最接近X射线开始时间的耀斑信号)平均提前6分钟被识别出来。“前兆”EUV信号(距离X射线开始时间第二近的EUV信号)平均提前14分钟出现。我们的下一个目标是开发一个操作版本的DIFT，并模拟和测试它的实时使用。一种完全可操作的灵巧技术有可能显著改善空间天气预报时间。
Solar flares have been linked to some of the most significant space weather hazards at Earth. These hazards, including radio blackouts and energetic particle events, can start just minutes after the flare onset. Therefore, it is of great importance to identify and predict flare events. In this paper we introduce the Detection and EUV Flare Tracking (DEFT) tool, which allows us to identify flare signatures and their precursors using high spatial and temporal resolution extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) solar observations. The unique advantage of DEFT is its ability to identify small but significant EUV intensity changes that may lead to solar eruptions. Furthermore, the tool can identify the location of the disturbances and distinguish events occurring at the same time in multiple locations. The algorithm analyzes high temporal cadence observations obtained from the Solar Ultraviolet Imager instrument aboard the GOES-R satellite. In a study of 61 flares of various magnitudes observed in 2017, the “main” EUV flare signatures (those closest in time to the X-ray start time) were identified on average 6 minutes early. The “precursor” EUV signatures (second-closest EUV signatures to the X-ray start time) appeared on average 14 minutes early. Our next goal is to develop an operational version of DEFT and to simulate and test its real-time use. A fully operational DEFT has the potential to significantly improve space weather forecast times.