Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration
Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)te.1943-5436.0000840
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发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Zareie;Md. Shohel Reza Amin;L. Amador-Jimenez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Zareie;Md. Shohel Reza Amin;L. Amador-Jimenez
摘要本研究的目的是模拟Thornthwaite水分指数（TMI）的区域内的大西洋省份（APC）在21世纪世纪的三个30年期间，并估计TMI和模拟货运交通负荷在同一时期的路面结构的恶化的相互作用。连接APC的1号、2号、7号、15号、16号、102号和104号区域公路被视为案例研究。空间投入产出和运输模型的整合模拟了2012-2100年期间选定区域公路上的货物流动。TMI是使用APC内34个站点的降尺度平均月降水量和温度估算的。模拟交通荷载和TMI施加到路面结构上的粗糙度进展的机理建模。研究结果表明，TMI的增加会导致路面结构的粗糙度进展率增加11-68%。
AbstractThe objectives of this study are to simulate the Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) for zones within the Atlantic provinces of Canada (APC) during three 30-year periods in the 21st century and to estimate the interactive effect of TMI and simulated freight traffic loads on the deterioration of pavement structure during the same period. Regional Highways 1, 2, 7, 15, 16, 102, and 104 connecting the APC are considered as the case study. Integration of spatial input-output and transportation models simulates freight movements on the selected regional highways during the period of 2012–2100. TMI is estimated using downscaled average monthly precipitation and temperature at 34 stations within the APC. Simulated traffic loads and TMI are applied to mechanistic modeling of roughness progression on the pavement structure. The findings of this study show that an increase in TMI can cause 11–68% increase of roughness progress rate on pavement structure.