Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave
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DOI：
10.1101/2021.01.15.21249884
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
N. Banholzer;E. van Weenen;A. Lison;A. Cenedese;A. Seeliger;Bernhard Kratzwald;D. Tschernutter;J. P. Sallés;P. Bottrighi;S. Lehtinen;S. Feuerriegel;W. Vach
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作者：
N. Banholzer;E. van Weenen;A. Lison;A. Cenedese;A. Seeliger;Bernhard Kratzwald;D. Tschernutter;J. P. Sallés;P. Bottrighi;S. Lehtinen;S. Feuerriegel;W. Vach
新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）已迅速发展成为全球性流行病。为了控制其传播，各国实施了非药物干预措施（NPI），例如关闭学校，禁止集会，甚至是呆在家里的命令。在这里，我们研究了七种NPI在减少新感染人数方面的有效性，这是使用半机械贝叶斯分层模型从COVID-19的报告病例中推断出来的。根据第一波流行病n=20个国家的数据（即，美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、欧盟15国、挪威和瑞士），我们估计了归因于每种NPI的新发感染数量的相对减少。在考虑的NPI中，活动禁令最有效，其次是场地和学校关闭，而呆在家里的命令和工作禁令效果最差。通过这种回顾性的跨国分析，我们提供了关于第一波流行期间不同NPI的有效性的估计。
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly developed into a global epidemic. To control its spread, countries have implemented non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures, gathering bans, or even stay-at-home orders. Here we study the effectiveness of seven NPIs in reducing the number of new infections, which was inferred from the reported cases of COVID-19 using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of n=20 countries (i.e., the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-15 countries, Norway, and Switzerland), we estimate the relative reduction in the number of new infections attributed to each NPI. Among the NPIs considered, event bans were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work bans were least effective. With this retrospective cross-country analysis, we provide estimates regarding the effectiveness of different NPIs during the first epidemic wave.