Will temperature and rainfall changes prevent yield progress in Europe?
Will temperature and rainfall changes prevent yield progress in Europe?
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DOI：
10.1002/fes3.372
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发表时间：
2022-01-31
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Lopes, Marta S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lopes, Marta S.
由于近年来产量增长停滞不前，人们越来越担心全球变暖对农作物产量的影响。然而，欧洲（欧盟）缺乏对整个作物周期中温度和降雨量变化对历史产量进展的影响的了解。在这项研究中，欧盟（1961-2019）的小麦、大麦、水稻和玉米单产进步显着，四种作物的产量分别为 0.05、0.04、0.05 和 0.07 Tha(-1)year(-1)。这一进展大部分是由东欧国家 (EE) 维持的，这些国家的产量进展率最高。平均而言，对于小麦和大麦来说，冬季温度升高 1 摄氏度会导致 EE 产量增加 +0.33 Tha(-1)。这可能是由于寒冷损害的减少以及光合作用和营养生长的改善，支持了产量的积极进展。除西欧（WE）、南欧（SE）大麦和北欧（NE）小麦外，所有欧盟地区近期（2001-2019年）小麦、大麦、水稻和玉米单产进展均为正值。西部地区小麦、大麦和稻米产量停滞不前，无法用观测数据的直接相关性用温度或降雨量来解释。然而，五月和七月的气温与东北部的小麦产量（-0.30 Tha(-1)℃-1）、东南部的大麦（-0.14 Tha(-1)℃-1）以及西欧和东南部的玉米产量（-0.42和-0.39 Tha(-1)℃-1）有关。随着气温升高，光合作用变得不那么理想，籽粒灌浆持续时间缩短，干旱事件增多，东北部小麦和东南部大麦的作物产量停滞不前。随着未来气温和水蒸发需求的持续增加，遗传适应、作物周期持续时间延长、耐旱性、播种日期、智能灌溉和可持续实践之间的相互作用可能需要进行彻底的区域测试，以最大限度地提高欧洲小麦、大麦和玉米的产量。
Concerns about the effects of global warming on crop yields have been raised due to stagnating yield progress in recent years. However, an understanding of the effects of changes in temperature and rainfall throughout the crop cycle on historical yield progress is lacking in Europe (EU). In this study, positive wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress in the EU (1961-2019) was significant, with rates of 0.05, 0.04, 0.05, and 0.07 Tha(-1)year(-1), for the four crops respectively. Much of this progress has been sustained by Eastern European countries (EE), which had the highest yield progress rates. On average, in the case of wheat and barley, a temperature increase of 1 degrees C in the winter resulted in yields increasing by +0.33 Tha(-1) in EE. This was potentially due to decreasing cold damage and improved photosynthesis and vegetative growth, supporting positive yield progress. Recent historical (2001-2019) rates of wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress were positive in all EU regions except Western Europe (WE), barley in Southern Europe (SE) and wheat in Northern Europe (NE). Stagnated wheat, barley and rice yields in WE were not explained by temperature or rainfall using direct correlations of observed data. However, May and July temperatures were associated with wheat yields in NE (-0.30 Tha(-1)degrees C-1), barley in SE (-0.14 Tha(-1)degrees C-1) and maize in WE and SE (-0.42 and -0.39 Tha(-1)degrees C-1). With increasing temperatures becoming less than optimal for photosynthesis, reducing grain filling duration and increasing drought episodes, crop yields have stagnated for wheat in NE and barley in SE. With consistent increases in temperature and water evaporative demand expected in the future, the interplay among genetic adaptation, increased crop cycle duration, drought tolerance, sowing dates, smart irrigation and sustainable practices may require thorough regional testing to maximise the yields of wheat, barley and maize in Europe.