Transportation security and the role of resilience: A foundation for operational metrics
Transportation security and the role of resilience: A foundation for operational metrics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.09.004
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Rose, Adam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cox, Andrew;Prager, Fynnwin;Rose, Adam
本文提出了运营指标，以确定客运系统的弹性恐怖主义。这些指标从具体的旅行次数到更全面的衡量标准，包括这些旅行对经济活动的直接和间接贡献。这些指标可以帮助决策者提供更明智的判断资源分配和如何设计一个组合的安全和恢复strategy.The文件还提供了一个框架，评估运输风险，包括潜在的放大这些风险的重要作用的看法。它还提供了一系列促进复原力的战略。然后，使用2005年伦敦地铁和公共汽车爆炸案的现实世界的情况下，交通系统的弹性进行量化。在普通的弹性方面，我们发现，在攻击模式下减少的总行程中，有77.4%被攻击后4个月内替代模式的增加所抵消。我们还估计，76.9%的总行程减少的攻击模式是一个“恐惧因素”的结果，而不是能力reductions.The论文的结论与一套拟议的前瞻性弹性措施，以评估潜在的弹性的交通系统。这些指标基于科普恐怖袭击或自然灾害的脆弱性、灵活性和资源可用性。(c)2010爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This paper presents operational metrics to determine a passenger transportation system's resilience to terrorism. The metrics range from those specific to the number of trips to more holistic measures that include the contribution of these trips directly and indirectly to economic activity. These metrics can aid decision-makers in rendering more informed judgments about resource allocation and how to design a portfolio of security and recovery strategies.The paper also provides a framework for evaluating transportation risk, including the important role of perceptions in potentially amplifying these risks. It provides a range of strategies to promote resilience as well. Resilience of a transportation system is then quantified using the real-world case of the 2005 London subway and bus bombings. In terms of ordinary resilience, we find that 77.4 percent of total journey reductions on attacked modes were offset by increases in substitute modes for the 4 months following the attacks. We also estimate that 76.9 percent of total journey reductions on attacked modes were the result of a "fear factor," as opposed to capacity reductions.The paper concludes with a set of proposed prospective resilience measures to evaluate the potential resilience of a transportation system. These metrics are based on the vulnerability, flexibility, and resource availability to cope with a terrorist attack or natural disaster. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.