Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning
Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.020
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
B. Christierson;J. Vidal;S. Wade
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Christierson;J. Vidal;S. Wade
十多年来，英国的水公司通过英国水工业研究所（UKWIR）资助的研究，已经在他们的水资源计划中考虑了气候变化。本文初步评估了英国气候预测2009 （UKCP09）在A1B情景下对2020年代全国范围内河流流量的影响及其对水资源规划的影响。基于两个概念模型结构和广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）方法的每日水文建模框架已应用于英国的70个集水区。采用拉丁超立方采样方法处理UKCP09的概率性质。结果显示，英国大部分地区的年平均流量减少，除冬季西部和北部山区外，所有月变化中值均为负。此外，研究结果表明，夏季流量极有可能显著下降。方差分析表明，河流流量变化的主要不确定性来自气候预估的分布。最后的结果与先前基于6个全球气候模式（GCMs）在A2情景下的个别预估的UKWIR评估一致。夏季低流量的减少对水资源至关重要，但UKCP09的减少似乎更为有限。虽然大多数预期的变化都在自然变率范围内，但总的干旱条件和与以前的评估相比结果的更大范围表明有必要检验水资源计划的稳健性。
Water companies in the United Kingdom have considered climate change in their water resources plans for more than a decade through studies funded by UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR). This paper presents an initial assessment of the impact of the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) on river flows at a national scale for the 2020s under the A1B scenario and the implications for water resource planning. A daily hydrological modelling framework based on two conceptual model structures and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology has been applied to 70 catchments across the UK. A Latin Hypercube Sampling approach was adopted to handle the probabilistic nature of UKCP09. Results show a decrease in mean annual flow over most of the UK, with negative median values of all monthly changes except in winter over the western and northern mountainous areas. Furthermore the results indicate a high likelihood of a significant decline in summer flows. An analysis of variance shows that the main uncertainty in river flow changes comes from the spread in climate projections. Finally results are found to be consistent with a previous UKWIR assessment based on individual projections from 6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the A2 scenario. The reduction in summer low-flows, critical for water resources, appears however more limited with UKCP09. Although most expected changes are within natural variability, the drier conditions overall and the greater spread of results with respect to previous assessments indicates a need for testing the robustness of water resource plans.