Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
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DOI：
10.1029/2010gl046402
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Nozawa, Toru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kawase, Hiroaki;Nagashima, Tatsuya;Nozawa, Toru
我们认为对流层臭氧的未来变化的基础上的代表性浓度路径（RCP），这是新的排放和浓度的第5次耦合模式相互比较项目的情景。与SRES情景相反，所有RCP情景都假设到21世纪世纪后期NOx排放减少，这有可能实现对流层臭氧减少。然而，由于温室气体和CH 4浓度的变化，辐射强迫（RF）的增加也有助于在RCP情景之间对流层臭氧分布的差异。在RCP4.5和RCP6.0中，假设RF稳定，由于剩余环流增强而导致的对流层臭氧增加被臭氧前体减少而导致的臭氧减少所抵消。相反，在RCP8.5中，假设即使在2100年之后RF也在增加，进一步增强的剩余环流和CH 4的显着增加导致对流层臭氧的急剧增加。引文：Kawase，H.，T. Nagashima，K. Sudo和T. Nozawa（2011年），《代表性浓度路径下对流层臭氧的未来变化》，地球物理学。保留信函：38，L05801，doi：10.1029/2010GL046402。
We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NOx by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone. Citation: Kawase, H., T. Nagashima, K. Sudo, and T. Nozawa (2011), Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05801, doi:10.1029/2010GL046402.