Trade, Gravity, and Sudden Stops: On How Commercial Trade Can Increase the Stability of Capital Flows
Trade, Gravity, and Sudden Stops: On How Commercial Trade Can Increase the Stability of Capital Flows
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.816824
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发表时间：
2005-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Eduardo A. Cavallo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eduardo A. Cavallo
金融稳定是一项重要的政策目标，因为危机会带来巨大的经济、社会和政治成本。本文通过提供新的理论和经验证据来说明缺乏商业贸易与突然停止倾向之间的因果关系，从而有助于讨论。在理论方面，本文展示了贸易敞口如何提高国家的信誉，并减少突然停止的可能性。
Financial stability is an important policy objective, since crises are associated with large economic, social and political costs. This paper contributes to the discussion by providing new theoretical and empirical evidence on the causal connection between lack of exposure to commercial trade and proclivity to sudden stops. On the theoretical front, the paper shows how exposure to trade raises the creditworthiness of countries and reduces the probability of sudden stops.