Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations
Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12951
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Johnston, Alison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
La Sorte, Frank A.;Fink, Daniel;Johnston, Alison
要确定全球气候变化对候鸟等高度移动的类群的影响，需要从时空综合和生态相关的角度来考虑。在这里，我们记录了如何雀形目鸟类在西半球（n = 77）内迁移与预计的新气候在整个年度周期。在预期之后，高度新颖的气候发生在热带非繁殖地，而最不新颖的气候发生在温带繁殖地。与预期相反，在从繁殖到秋季迁徙的过渡期间，温带地区也出现了非常新颖的气候。这一结果是由较低的年际气候变率与较强的变暖预测相结合造成的。因此，预计移徙者在其年周期的大部分时间里会遇到新的气候，在幼鱼离开巢穴准备开始第一次移徙之旅时会出现明显的高峰，这可能会对它们的生存机会产生不利影响。
Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non-breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter-annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.