Forecasting COVID-19
Forecasting COVID-19
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DOI：
10.3389/fphy.2020.00127
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发表时间：
2020-04-08
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Stozer, Andrez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Perc, Matjaz;Miksic, Nina Gorisek;Stozer, Andrez
世界卫生组织于3月11日宣布2019年冠状病毒病为大流行病，当时全球110多个国家和地区有超过118，000例病例。在撰写本稿时，确诊病例数已迅速突破50万大关，凸显出进一步全球传播的持续风险。世界各国政府正在实施各种遏制措施，而医疗保健系统正在为寻求治疗的感染者的海啸做准备。因此，重要的是要知道在案件数量增长方面会发生什么，并了解需要采取什么措施来遏制这种非常令人担忧的趋势。为此，我们在这里展示了用一种简单的迭代方法获得的预测，该方法只需要确认案例的每日值作为输入。该方法考虑了预期的恢复和死亡，并确定了最大允许的每日增长率，从指数增长转向稳定和下降的数字。预测显示，如果我们希望在不久的将来看到平稳期，日增长率至少应该保持在5%以下不幸的是，迄今为止大多数国家的现实情况远非如此。我们提供了一个可执行文件，以及一个简单的应用程序的方法从其他国家的数据源代码。
The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 a pandemic on March 11th, pointing to the over 118,000 cases in over 110 countries and territories around the world at that time. At the time of writing this manuscript, the number of confirmed cases has been surging rapidly past the half-million mark, emphasizing the sustained risk of further global spread. Governments around the world are imposing various containment measures while the healthcare system is bracing itself for tsunamis of infected individuals that will seek treatment. It is therefore important to know what to expect in terms of the growth of the number of cases, and to understand what is needed to arrest the very worrying trends. To that effect, we here show forecasts obtained with a simple iteration method that needs only the daily values of confirmed cases as input. The method takes into account expected recoveries and deaths, and it determines maximally allowed daily growth rates that lead away from exponential increase toward stable and declining numbers. Forecasts show that daily growth rates should be kept at least below 5% if we wish to see plateaus any time soon-unfortunately far from reality in most countries to date. We provide an executable as well as the source code for a straightforward application of the method on data from other countries.