Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning
Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning
复制标题
加勒比珊瑚白化的缩小预测可为保护规划提供信息
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Sang‐Ki Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. van Hooidonk;J. Maynard;Yanyun Liu;Sang‐Ki Lee
全球气候模型以粗略的分辨率（~1°）制作的气候变化对珊瑚礁影响的预测为辩论提供了信息，但无助于针对地方管理行动。在这里，根据代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5，使用33个耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段模型的集合并通过动态和统计降尺度来预测加勒比地区年度珊瑚漂白条件的开始。高分辨率（~11 km）区域海洋模式（MOM4.1）用于动力降尺度。对于统计降尺度，所有GCM中的海表温度（SST）平均值和年周期都被来自约4 km NOAA Pathfinder SST数据集的观测数据所取代。所有三个预测的空间模式大致相似;所有预测的严重白化发生的平均年份为2040-2043年。然而，降尺度的预测显示，在许多地方，每年的严重漂白（ASB）的发病变化10年或更长的时间内，一个单一的GCM网格单元。适用此规定的地点的经理（例如，佛罗里达、特克斯和凯科斯群岛、波多黎各和多米尼加共和国等）可以确定代表相对但临时避难所的地点。与GCM的预测相比，巴哈马的两个降尺度预测都不同。动态降尺度的预测表明，ASB的发病较早，预计在区域电流的变化，一个功能没有解决的GCM。这一结果证明了动态降尺度对这一应用的价值，并意味着必须谨慎解释统计上降尺度的预测。然而，除了安德罗斯岛以西以外，两种降尺度的预测基本一致;对于72%的珊瑚礁位置，ASB的预测开始时间在±10年内。
Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high‐resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4‐km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040–2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations.