Economic and social determinants of global physical flows of critical metals
Economic and social determinants of global physical flows of critical metals
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.02.004
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发表时间：
2017-06
期刊：
影响因子：
10.2
通讯作者：
Yosuke Shigetomi;K. Nansai;S. Kagawa;Y. Kondo;S. Tohno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yosuke Shigetomi;K. Nansai;S. Kagawa;Y. Kondo;S. Tohno
稀有金属和稀土金属（即15种镧系元素加上钪和钇）是高科技产业的关键元素。这些要素引起了相当大的关注，不仅因为它们的经济价值，还因为它们对于未来传播和采用清洁能源技术至关重要，而这些技术正在开发中，以减轻全球变暖（国家研究委员会，2008年，欧盟委员会，2010年）。由于这些金属资源的可用性受到地缘政治约束（Achzet 和 Helbig，2013）、环境影响（Golev 等，2014）、价格波动（Fizaine，2015，Maxwell，2015）、出口法规（Mancheri，2015）以及替代和回收难度（Reck 和 Graedel，2012，Binnemans 等， 2013），关键金属的稳定供应变得越来越重要（Massari 和 Ruberti，2013；Suárez Sánchez 等，2015；Barteková 和 Kemp，2016），并且金属关键性已得到定性评估（Graedel 等，2012；Graedel 等，2015；Hatayama 和 Tahara，2015；Nansai 等） al., 2014, Nansai et al., 2015, Nansai et al., 2017, Nassar et al., 2015, Helbig et al., 2016, Nuss et al., 2016b)。在此背景下，对关键金属（银、钴、铟、锂、硒、铂、镓、锗、碲、钇、镍、铬、钼、稀土金属，例如钕和镝）（Reck 等人，2008；Daigo 等人，2010；Du 和 Graedel，2011；Harper 等人，2012；Elshkaki，2013；Elshkaki 和 Graedel，2013；Elshkaki 和 Graedel， 2014；Kavlak 和 Graedel，2013b；Kavlak 和 Graedel，2013；Nansai 等，2014；Seo 和 Morimoto，2016；Guyonnet 等，2015；等，2016；Hao 等，2017），以及铁（Müller 等，2006；Hatayama 等，2010；Pauliuk 等，2013；Pauliuk 和 Müller，2014）；铝（Hatayama 等，2007；Chen 和 Graedel， 2012）、铜（Graedel 等人，2004；Daigo 等人，2009；Elshkaki 等人，2016）、铅（Elshkaki 等人，2005；Elshkaki 等人，2009）、锌（Daigo 等人，2014）以及其他贱金属和合金元素（Ohno 等人，2014；Ohno 等人）等人，2015，Ohno等人，2016a）通过物质流分析（MFA）、物质流分析（SFA）和IO-MFA建模方法进行了（Nakamura等人，2007，Nakamura等人，2014）。最近，网络分析研究已被用来分析金属流动的复杂网络（Chen et al., 2016; Ge et al., 2016b; Nuss et al., 2016a; Ohno et al., 2016b; Tokito et al., 2016）。虽然这些研究大多数检查了特定年份供应链中关键金属的流动，但有些研究试图捕捉未来的关键金属需求（Elshkaki，2013，Elshkaki和Graedel，2013，Elshkaki和Graedel，2014，Seo和Morimoto，2014，Choi等人，2016，Ge等人，2016a，Yano等人， 2016），因为此类评估有助于制定考虑与关键金属相关的“潜在”采购风险的资源政策。关于次级材料，Elshkaki（2013）利用有意和无意流量和库存的系统动力学模型，估计了矿物废物、土壤、垃圾填埋场和建筑材料中未来铂金的需求和积累。 Choi等人(2016)还利用系统动力学模型来预测不同能源和技术发展情景下的铟供需情况，重点关注铜铟镓硒光伏和发光二极管照明。 Elshkaki 和 Graedel（2013）对可再生能源技术的关键金属需求和库存进行了建模，例如风能和……
Rare metals and rare earth metals (ie, the 15 lanthanoid elements plus scandium and yttrium) are critical elements in high-tech industries. These elements have attracted considerable attention, not only for their economic value, but also because they are central to the future diffusion and adoption of clean energy technologies that are being developed to mitigate global warming (National Research Council, 2008, European Commission, 2010). Since the availability of these metal resources is limited by geopolitical constraints (Achzet and Helbig, 2013), environmental impact (Golev et al., 2014), price volatility (Fizaine, 2015, Maxwell, 2015), export regulations (Mancheri, 2015), and difficulty of substitution and recycling (Reck and Graedel, 2012, Binnemans et al., 2013), a stable supply of critical metals is becoming increasingly important (Massari and Ruberti, 2013, Suárez Sánchez et al., 2015, Barteková and Kemp, 2016) and the metal criticalities have been qualitatively assessed (Graedel et al., 2012, Graedel et al., 2015, Hatayama and Tahara, 2015, Nansai et al., 2014, Nansai et al., 2015, Nansai et al., 2017, Nassar et al., 2015, Helbig et al., 2016, Nuss et al., 2016b).Given this background, studies on the flows of critical metals (silver, cobalt, indium, lithium, selenium, platinum, gallium, germanium, tellurium, yttrium, nickel, chromium, molybdenum, rare earth metals, such as neodymium and dysprosium)(Reck et al., 2008, Daigo et al., 2010, Du and Graedel, 2011; Harper et al., 2012; Elshkaki, 2013; Elshkaki and Graedel, 2013, Elshkaki and Graedel, 2014; Kavlak and Graedel, 2013b, Kavlak and Graedel, 2013a Nakajima et al., 2013; Nansai et al., 2014; Seo and Morimoto, 2014, Seo and Morimoto, 2016; Guyonnet et al., 2015; Licht et al., 2015; Choi et al., 2016; Yano et al., 2016; Hao et al. 2017), as well as iron (Müller et al., 2006, Hatayama et al., 2010, Pauliuk et al., 2013, Pauliuk and Müller, 2014), aluminum (Hatayama et al., 2007, Chen and Graedel, 2012), copper (Graedel et al., 2004; Daigo et al., 2009; Elshkaki et al., 2016), lead (Elshkaki et al., 2005, Elshkaki et al., 2009), zinc (Daigo et al., 2014) and other base metals and alloy elements (Ohno et al., 2014, Ohno et al., 2015, Ohno et al., 2016a) have been conducted by material flow analysis (MFA), substance flow analysis (SFA), and an IO-MFA modeling approach (Nakamura et al., 2007, Nakamura et al., 2014). More recently, network analysis studies have been used to analyze the complex network of metal flows (Chen et al., 2016, Ge et al., 2016b, Nuss et al., 2016a, Ohno et al., 2016b, Tokito et al., 2016). While most of these studies examined the flows of critical metals in their supply chains in specific years, some attempted to capture future critical metal demands (Elshkaki, 2013, Elshkaki and Graedel, 2013, Elshkaki and Graedel, 2014, Seo and Morimoto, 2014, Choi et al., 2016, Ge et al., 2016a, Yano et al., 2016), as such assessments are useful for developing resource policies that consider ‘potential’procurement risks associated with critical metals. Regarding secondary materials, Elshkaki (2013) estimated future platinum demand and accumulation in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites, and construction materials using system dynamics modeling of intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. Choi et al.(2016) also employed system dynamics modeling to forecast the supply and demand for indium under different energy and technology development scenarios, focusing on copper indium gallium selenide photovoltaics and light-emitting diode lighting. Elshkaki and Graedel (2013) modeled critical metal demands and stocks in renewable energy technologies, such as wind power and …