Hindcasting the NAO using diabatic forcing of a simple AGCM
Hindcasting the NAO using diabatic forcing of a simple AGCM
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使用简单 AGCM 的非绝热力对 NAO 进行后置
DOI：
10.1029/2001gl014502
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Derome
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. A. Peterson;R. Greatbatch;Jian Lu;Hai Lin;J. Derome
利用1949-1999年NCAR/NCEP再分析资料诊断的绝热强迫，采用具有模式物理基本表征的原始方程干大气模式对冬季NAO进行了后推。利用实验集合，我们能够在集合平均值中再现观测到的NAO指数，相关性为0.79。通过规定仅在热带（30°S-30°N）或仅在外热带的时间相关强迫，我们表明NAO最近的上升趋势与热带强迫有关。这意味着与中纬度或北冰洋的耦合对这一趋势并不重要。该模式还显示了NAO年际变率的海平面压力特征最近东移，并表明这与非线性动力过程有关。
A primitive equation dry atmospheric model with a rudimentary representation of the model physics is used to hindcast the winter NAO using diabatic forcing diagnosed from NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data in the period 1949–1999. Using ensembles of experiments we are able to reproduce the observed NAO index in the ensemble mean with a correlation of 0.79. By prescribing time dependent forcing only in the tropics (30°S–30°N), or only in the extra‐tropics, we show that the recent upward trend in the NAO is related to tropical forcing. The implication is that coupling with the mid‐latitude or Arctic ocean is not important for the trend. The model also exhibits the recent eastward shift in the sea level pressure signature of the interannual NAO variability and shows that this is associated with non‐linear dynamical processes.