APPLICATION OF TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS FOR THE RECOGNITION OF INCREASES IN URINARY ESTROGENS AS MARKERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE POTENTIALLY FERTILE PERIOD
APPLICATION OF TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS FOR THE RECOGNITION OF INCREASES IN URINARY ESTROGENS AS MARKERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE POTENTIALLY FERTILE PERIOD
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DOI：
10.1016/0039-128x(92)90025-5
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发表时间：
1992-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
BROWN, JB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BLACKWELL, LF;BROWN, JB
对142个排卵期月经周期的尿总雌激素数据进行时间序列分析，以确定第一个统计学显著增加作为潜在生育期开始的标志。Trigg跟踪信号在每个周期的应用检测到尿中总雌激素在每种情况下高于基线的增加，累积概率大于或等于95%。首次增加天数的分布范围为假定排卵日前10天至3.5天，平均6.5 +/- 1.4天。跟踪信号计算中的重要参数是平滑常数（α），它与基线观测值的数量、周期的基线平均值和基线平均值的变化有关。该方法允许在周期展开时计算跟踪信号，并且可以每天给出统计评估。该程序很容易适用于计算机计算，并且因为它适用于单个循环，避免了使用总体方法，而损失了与来自许多循环的数据的组合固有相关的信息。Trigg跟踪信号是分析月经周期数据的适当方法，并且代表了更常见的累积和程序的令人满意的替代方案。第一次增加的分布构成了尿雌激素测定的参考标准。
Time-series analysis was applied to the urinary total estrogen data from 142 ovulatory menstrual cycles to determine the first statistically significant increase as a marker for the beginning of the potentially fertile phase. Application of the Trigg's tracking signal to each cycle detected an increase in urinary total estrogens above the baseline in every case, with a cumulative probability of greater-than-or-equal-to 95%. The distribution of first increase days ranged from 10 days before to 3.5 days before the presumed day of ovulation with a mean of 6.5 +/- 1.4 days. The significant parameters in the calculation of the tracking signal are the smoothing constant (alpha) which is related to the number of baseline observations, the baseline mean for the cycle, and the variation of the baseline mean. The method allows a calculation of the tracking signal as the cycle unfolds and a statistical assessment can be given each day. The procedure is easily adaptable for computer calculation, and because it is applied to individual cycles avoids the use of population means with the loss of information inherently associated with the combination of data from many cycles. The Trigg's tracking signal is an appropriate method of analysis of menstrual cycle data and represents a satisfactory alternative to the more usual cumulative sum procedure. The distribution of the first increases constitutes a reference standard for urinary estrogen assays.