Stochastic Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem Tipping Risk
Stochastic Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem Tipping Risk
复制标题
生态系统倾覆风险的随机综合评估
DOI：
10.1007/s10640-016-0054-y
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Ole Wilms
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Lontzek;Daiju Narita;Ole Wilms
气候变化的主要潜在后果之一是对地球生态系统的破坏，这种破坏可能以倾倒风险的形式表现出来。我们建立了一个经济增长模型的生态系统倾倒风险，设置在可能的森林枯死的背景下。我们认为不同规格的影响所产生的森林顶梢枯梢临界点，规格，如森林的系统动力学的变化，森林质量的变化，对经济产出的影响。我们还考虑了内生和外生的临界点概率。对于每个规范，我们计算森林管理和排放控制的最佳政策。我们的研究结果表明，倾翻后事件，最佳森林收获，无论是预防性或积极的倾翻前事件收获模式，与现有文献的研究结果一致的功能模式的质的差异。对毁林和二氧化碳减排的最佳控制也显示出倾翻后和倾翻前水平的不同模式，取决于倾翻风险的性质。尽管如此，今天的最佳政策是更严格的排放控制在潜在的森林枯死临界点的存在。
One of the major potential consequences of climate change is damage to earth’s ecosystems, damage which could manifest itself in the form of tipping risks. We establish an economic growth model of ecosystem tipping risks, set in the context of possible forest dieback. We consider different specifications of impacts arising from the forest dieback tipping point, specifications such as changes in the system dynamics of the forests, changes in the forest mass, and impacts on economic output. We also consider endogenous and exogenous tipping point probabilities. For each specification we compute the optimal policies for forest management and emission control. Our results show qualitative differences in patterns of post-tipping event, optimal forest harvest, and either precautionary or aggressive pre-tipping event harvest patterns, a feature consistent with the findings of the existing literature. Optimal control of deforestation and carbon dioxide emission reduction also exhibits varied patterns of post- and pre-tipping levels depending on the nature of the tipping risk. Still, today’s optimal policy is one of more stringent emissions control in presence of a potential forest dieback tipping point.