Trade Openness, Country Size and Economic Volatility: The Compensation Hypothesis Revisited
Trade Openness, Country Size and Economic Volatility: The Compensation Hypothesis Revisited
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贸易开放度、国家规模和经济波动：重新审视补偿假设
DOI：
10.2202/1469-3569.1201
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
I. Down
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Down
补偿假说的一个突出变体的前提是，贸易风险的增加会加剧国内经济波动，从而促使人们要求通过慷慨的转移和服务体系进行补偿。经济理论表明，由于国际贸易的扩张需要融入更大、更深、更稳定的市场，并且可能需要分散风险，因此它实际上可能会促进而不是降低稳定性。然而，出于同样的原因，经济理论也表明，较小的经济体应该比较大的经济体经历更大程度的波动，因此也会经历更大程度的不安全感。这里提供的证据表明，二十世纪下半叶发达经济体的国内经济波动程度可能确实是由市场的规模和深度驱动的。至关重要的是，对于这些国家来说，国际贸易一体化可能会缓解而不是加剧国内经济波动。
A prominent variant of the compensation hypothesis rests on the premise that increased trade exposure heightens domestic economic volatility, prompting demands for compensation via generous systems of transfers and services. Economic theory suggests that because the expansion of international trade entails integration into larger, deeper, more stable markets, and may entail risk diversification, it may actually promote rather than reduce stability. By the same token, however, economic theory also suggests that smaller economies should experience greater levels of volatility than larger economies, and thus also greater levels of insecurity. The evidence presented here suggests that the level of domestic economic volatility in the developed economies, during the latter half of the twentieth century, may indeed have been driven by the size and depth of markets. And critically, for these countries international trade integration may have eased rather than accentuated domestic economic volatility.