A Bayesian Analysis of Extrasolar Planet Data for HD 73526
A Bayesian Analysis of Extrasolar Planet Data for HD 73526
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DOI：
10.1086/432594
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发表时间：
2005-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Gregory
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Gregory
提出了一种新的贝叶斯非线性模型拟合工具，该工具采用并行回火马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法和一种新的统计控制系统。应用该算法对HD 73526高精度径向速度数据进行了再分析。对于单行星模型，发现了三个可能的轨道，周期分别为127.88、190.4和376.2天。128天的轨道，离心率为0.56±0.03，其先验似然值的最大值是次高的376天的16倍。然而，376天的轨道，离心率为0.10，在形式上更有可能，因为对于这个稀疏的数据集，在376天峰值附近有更大的参数空间体积和显著的概率密度。先前报道的190.5±3.0天的轨道（Tinney et al. 2003）与我们最不可能的轨道相对应。分析强调需要在376天的周期内围绕第0.5阶段进行测量。
A new Bayesian tool for nonlinear model fitting has been developed that employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with a novel statistical control system. The algorithm has been used to reanalyze precision radial velocity data for HD 73526. For a single-planet model, three possible orbits were found with periods of 127.88, 190.4, and 376.2 days. The 128 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.56 ± 0.03, has a maximum value of prior × likelihood that is 16 times larger than for the next highest solution at 376 days. However, the 376 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.10, is formally more probable because for this sparse data set there is a much larger volume of parameter space with a significant probability density in the vicinity of the 376 day peak. The previously reported orbit (Tinney et al. 2003) of 190.5 ± 3.0 days corresponds to our least probable orbit. The analysis highlights the need for measurements around phase 0.5 for the 376 day period.