El Nino and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission
El Nino and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission
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DOI：
10.2307/3434364
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Woodward, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hales, S;Weinstein, P;Woodward, A
这项研究的目的是调查南太平洋14个岛屿国家报告的登革热发病率与厄尔尼诺南方涛动之间的关系。使用混合生态研究设计，我们计算了南方涛动指数（SOI），当地温度和降雨量，登革热的年平均值之间的相关性。我们还计算了不同岛屿登革热病例月度报告之间的时间相关性。有10个国家的SOI与登革热呈正相关。在其中五个（包括所有较大的岛屿）也有SOI和当地温度和/或降雨量的估计之间的正相关。在两组国家内，登革热病例的月度报告之间存在时间相关性。与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动相关的气候变化可能会在登革热流行的较大、人口较多的岛屿引发登革热传播的增加。还有证据表明，感染从较大的岛屿传播到较小的邻国。与流行病的开始不同，岛屿之间的这种转移似乎不受年际气候变化的影响，这表明了登革热传播中调节因素的重要性，如人口密度和旅行。今后，气候变化影响的模型必须设法考虑这些因素。
The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between reported incidence of dengue fever and El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) in 14 island nations of the South Pacific. Using a mixed ecological study design, we calculated correlations between annual averages of the southern oscillation index (SOI), local temperature and rainfall, and dengue fever. We also calculated temporal correlations between monthly reports of dengue fever cases on different islands. There were positive correlations between SOI and dengue in 10 countries. In five of these (including all of the larger islands) there were also positive correlations between SOI and estimates of local temperature and/or rainfall. There were temporal correlations between monthly reports of dengue cases within two groups of countries. Climate changes associated with ENSO may trigger an increase in dengue fever transmission in larger, more populated islands where the disease is endemic. There was also evidence of propagation of infection from larger islands to smaller neighbors. Unlike the initiation of epidemics, this transfer between islands appears to be independent of interannual climate variations, pointing to the importance of modulating factors in dengue transmission such as population density and travel. In the future, models of the impact of climate change must attempt to account for these factors.