Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement
Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3422
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Levin, Lisa A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gallo, Natalya D.;Victor, David G.;Levin, Lisa A.
根据《巴黎协定》，各国做出了被称为国家自主贡献（NDC）的承诺，这表明各国政府如何评估气候风险和政策机会。我们发现，NDC揭示了反映国家利益和能力的重要系统模式。由于海洋在减缓和适应气候变化方面发挥着关键作用，我们创建了一个定量的海洋焦点因子（MFF）来评估政府如何解决海洋问题。与过去海洋在气候谈判中受到的关注最少相比，我们分析的161个NDC中有70%包括海洋问题。生活在低洼地区的人口比例-易受海平面上升的影响-对MFF产生积极影响，但谈判组（附件1或小岛屿发展中国家）同样重要，这表明政治动机对NDC发展至关重要。分析揭示了科学和政府关注之间的差距，包括海洋脱氧，这是很少提到的。各国政府对扩大气候优先事项方面的海洋研究表现出浓厚的兴趣。
Under the Paris Agreement nations made pledges known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which indicate how national governments are evaluating climate risks and policy opportunities. We find that NDCs reveal important systematic patterns reflecting national interests and capabilities. Because the ocean plays critical roles in climate mitigation and adaptation, we created a quantitative marine focus factor (MFF) to evaluate how governments address marine issues. In contrast to the past, when oceans received minimal attention in climate negotiations, 70% of 161 NDCs we analysed include marine issues. The percentage of the population living in low-lying areas-vulnerable to rising seas-positively influences the MFF, but negotiating group (Annex 1 or small island developing states) is equally important, suggesting political motivations are crucial to NDC development. The analysis reveals gaps between scientific and government attention, including on ocean deoxygenation, which is barely mentioned. Governments display a keen interest in expanding marine research on climate priorities.