A simultaneous equations model of internal migration with dynamic policy simulations and forecasting: Italy, 1952-1976.
A simultaneous equations model of internal migration with dynamic policy simulations and forecasting: Italy, 1952-1976.
复制标题
具有动态政策模拟和预测的国内移民联立方程模型：意大利，1952-1976 年。
DOI：
10.1016/0304-3878(80)90006-1
复制
发表时间：
1980
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
D. Salvatore
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Salvatore
本研究的目的是通过动态联立方程模型确定导致 1952 年至 1976 年间意大利南部大规模劳动力迁移至北部的最重要社会经济力量的相对重要性，并分析其对南部过去和未来发展的影响。该模型采用全信息最大似然法进行估计，通过动态模拟进行验证，强调动态政策模拟，并给出了一些预测的结果。
The purpose of this study is to determine, with a dynamic simultaneous equations model, the relative importance of the most significant socioeconomic forces leading to the large-scale labor migration from the South to the North of Italy from 1952 to 1976, and to analyze its implications for the past and prospective development of the South. The model is estimated by Full Information Maximum Likelihood, validated by dynamic simulation, stressing dynamicpolicysimulations, and also presenting the results of some forecasting.