Energy, economic and environmental impact of government fines in China's carbon trading scheme.
Energy, economic and environmental impact of government fines in China's carbon trading scheme.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.405
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发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Boqiang Lin;Zhijie Jia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boqiang Lin;Zhijie Jia
近年来，人类活动造成的碳排放量激增。碳排放交易制度（ETS）是一种可行的减排方式。很少有研究集中在ETS罚款过量排放。运用可计算一般均衡模型分析了ETS中精细机制的不同影响，构建了七种情景。我们发现，虽然在应用ETS市场时，GDP损失并不显著，但随着ETS罚款的增加，GDP损失会迅速增加。可变ETS罚款的CO2减排效果略好于固定罚款。与排放交易体系中较低的罚款相比，较高的罚款会导致相对较低的碳强度，这是由于不同情景下减排效果不同造成的。ETS罚款对减排成本的影响似乎不如GDP损失率和减排量大。ETS罚款对企业ETS成本、商品价格、能源密集型产业产出以及GDP损失和CO2减排量有显著影响，但对碳排放强度和减排成本影响较小。适当的ETS罚款非常重要，中国ETS市场的ETS罚款是碳价格的2-3倍。我们认为目前政府的设计是合理的。
Carbon emissions caused by human activities have exploded in recent years. Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a feasible way to reduce CO2. Little research concentrated on the ETS fines for excessive emission. We analyzed the different impacts of fine mechanisms in ETS by applying computable general equilibrium model and constructed seven scenarios. We found that although Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss is not significant when applying ETS market, GDP loss would increase rapidly when ETS fine increases. The CO2abatement effect of alterable ETS fine is a bit better than that of fixed fine. Higher fines will cause relatively lower carbon intensity compared with lower ETS fines, which is caused by different emission reduction effect in different scenarios. It seems that ETS fines cannot affect reduction costs as significantly as GDP loss rate and emission reduction. ETS fine can affect significantly ETS cost of enterprises, commodity price and output of energy-intensive industries as well as GDP loss and CO2abatement, but can less influence carbon emission intensity and reduction cost. A proper ETS fine is very important and ETS fines in China's ETS market are 2–3 times of carbon price. We consider that the current government design is reasonable.