Improving estimates of the basic reproductive ratio: Using both the mean and the dispersal of transition times
Improving estimates of the basic reproductive ratio: Using both the mean and the dispersal of transition times
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tpb.2006.03.003
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Wahl, L. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heffernan, J. M.;Wahl, L. M.
在病原体动态的宿主内和流行病学模型中，基本繁殖比R-0是衡量与新出现的病原体相关的风险或估计所需控制措施的大小的有力工具。根据发病率数据或宿主内临床测量来估计R-0的技术通常依赖于对平均过渡时间的估计，即在康复、死亡或隔离发生之前的平均时间。然而，在许多情况下，即使潜在概率分布的确切形式仍然未知，数据或直觉都可能提供关于这些关于平均值的转变时间的分散的额外信息。例如，我们可能知道恢复通常发生在平均恢复时间的几天内。在这篇文章中，我们阐明了R-0对各自平均值的过渡时间的分散敏感的常见情况。然后，我们提供了简单的修正因子，当不仅可以估计感染状态的转变时间的平均值，而且可以估计出感染状态的标准差时，可以应用这些修正因子来改进R-0的估计。(C)2006 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
In both within-host and epidemiological models of pathogen dynamics, the basic reproductive ratio, R-0, is a powerful tool for gauging the risk associated with an emerging pathogen, or for estimating the magnitude of required control measures. Techniques for estimating R-0, either from incidence data or in-host clinical measures, often rely on estimates of mean transition times, that is, the mean time before recovery, death or quarantine occurs. In many cases, however, either data or intuition may provide additional information about the dispersal of these transition times about the mean, even if the precise form of the underlying probability distribution remains unknown. For example, we may know that recovery typically occurs within a few days of the mean recovery time. In this paper we elucidate common situations in which R-0 is sensitive to the dispersal of transition times about their respective means. We then provide simple correction factors that may be applied to improve estimates of R-0 when not only the mean but also the standard deviation of transition times out of the infectious state can be estimated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.