THE IMPACTS OF NEIGHBORHOODS ON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY II: COUNTY-LEVEL ESTIMATES
THE IMPACTS OF NEIGHBORHOODS ON INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY II: COUNTY-LEVEL ESTIMATES
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjy006
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Hendren, Nathaniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chetty, Raj;Hendren, Nathaniel
我们估计了美国每个县对儿童成年后收入的因果影响。我们首先估计一个固定效应模型，该模型是通过分析有不同年龄儿童的跨县搬家的家庭而确定的。然后，我们使用这些固定效应估计来（i）量化地方对代际流动的重要性，（ii）构建对每个县成长的因果效应的预测，可用于指导寻求机会的家庭，以及（iii）描述哪些类型的地区会产生更好的结果。对于在低收入家庭长大的儿童来说，童年时期每接触一个标准差 (std. dev.) 较好的县，成年后的收入就会增加 0.5%。即使在都市区内，各县的因果效应也存在很大差异。贫困不那么集中、收入不平等程度较小、学校条件较好、双亲家庭比例较高以及犯罪率较低的县往往会给贫困家庭的孩子带来更好的结果。男孩的结果在不同地区的差异比女孩的结果更大，而且男孩在高度隔离的地区的结果尤其负面。产生更好结果的地区平均房价较高，但我们的方法发现了许多“机会便宜”——产生良好结果但价格不是很贵的地方。
We estimate the causal effect of each county in the United States on children's incomes in adulthood. We first estimate a fixed effects model that is identified by analyzing families who move across counties with children of different ages. We then use these fixed effect estimates to (i) quantify how much places matter for intergenerational mobility, (ii) construct forecasts of the causal effect of growing up in each county that can be used to guide families seeking to move to opportunity, and (iii) characterize which types of areas produce better outcomes. For children growing up in low-income families, each year of childhood exposure to a one standard deviation (std. dev.) better county increases income in adulthood by 0.5%. There is substantial variation in counties' causal effects even within metro areas. Counties with less concentrated poverty, less income inequality, better schools, a larger share of two-parent families, and lower crime rates tend to produce better outcomes for children in poor families. Boys' outcomes varymore across areas than girls' outcomes, and boys have especially negative outcomes in highly segregated areas. Areas that generate better outcomes have higher house prices on average, but our approach uncovers many "opportunity bargains"-places that generate good outcomes but are not very expensive.