Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming
Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2210
复制
发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Connolly, Sean R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Figueiredo, Joana;Baird, Andrew H.;Connolly, Sean R.
气候变化将改变生物生态的许多方面，包括扩散模式和种群连通性(1)。了解这些变化对于预测未来物种分布、估计适应潜力以及设计有效的保护区网络至关重要(2)。在海洋环境中，传播通常是由幼虫完成的。在较高温度下，幼虫发育较快 (3-5)，但死亡率较高 (4-6)，因此难以预测温度对传播的影响。在这里，我们通过实验校准了珊瑚传播动态模型中温度对幼虫生存和定居的影响。我们的研究结果表明，由于海洋变暖，全球大多数珊瑚礁的幼虫局部滞留量将增加数倍。对于平均水停留时间与物种能够定居所需的时间相当的珊瑚礁来说，这种增加尤其明显。较高的当地保留率加强了珊瑚礁规模的丰度和补充之间的联系，这表明种群将对当地的保护行动更加敏感。较高的当地保留率和死亡率将削弱人口之间的联系，从而可能阻碍严重干扰导致当地人口大量减少后的恢复。相反，对于依赖当地亲鱼补充的孤立珊瑚礁，增加当地保留可能会加速恢复。
Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity(1). Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas(2). In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster(3-5), but suffer higher mortality(4-6), making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive tolocal conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery.