How open are Canadian households to electric vehicles? A national latent class choice analysis with willingness-to-pay and metropolitan characterization
How open are Canadian households to electric vehicles? A national latent class choice analysis with willingness-to-pay and metropolitan characterization
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2017.12.006
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Kanaroglou, Pavlos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferguson, Mark;Mohamed, Moataz;Kanaroglou, Pavlos
本文报告了2015年加拿大消费者全国调查的结果，该调查旨在评估消费者对电动汽车的态度和偏好。在陈述偏好选择的基础上，建立了隐类离散选择模型。出现了四个类别，每个类别都面向所考虑的主要车辆技术之一。内燃机（ICE）导向类的主要特征是购买价格敏感性，EV怀疑论和明显的抵制变化;对于混合动力电动汽车（HEV）导向类，它不愿意插入和高度环境关注的不寻常组合以及接受燃烧汽油;对于面向郊区的插电式混合动力电动汽车（PHEV）面向类，其被测量为关于插电式的乐观态度与针对下一次购买的替换车辆的取向相结合;而对于年轻人和大多数城市的纯电动汽车（BEV）为导向的阶层来说，这是对电动汽车最高的乐观态度，并专注于快速加速和最小化维护成本等积极方面。从家庭心态来看，大约40%是ICE，30%是PHEV，20%是HEV，10%是BEV。这些结果表明，电动汽车具有相当大的开放性。支付车辆和充电属性和激励的意愿进行了计算，是非常有用的解释潜在的类。结果具有有趣的地理变化，这是在加拿大大都市地区的水平。
This paper reports on results developed from a 2015 national survey of Canadian consumers that sought to assess attitudes and preferences towards consumer electric vehicles. A latent class discrete choice model was developed based on stated preferences choices. Four classes emerged with each being oriented to one of the primary vehicle technologies considered. The dominant characteristics of the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)-oriented class are purchase price sensitivity, EV scepticism and an apparent resistance to change; for the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)-oriented class it is reluctance to plug-in and an unusual combination of high environmental concern and an acceptance to burn gasoline; for the suburban-oriented Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)-oriented class it is measured optimism about plugging-in combined with an orientation to a replacement vehicle for the next purchase; and for the younger and most urban Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)-oriented class it is the highest optimism about electric vehicles and a focus on positive aspects such as rapid acceleration and minimized maintenance costs. By orientation of household mindset, approximately 40% are ICE, 30% are PHEV, 20% are HEV and 10% are BEV. These results suggest considerable openness to electric vehicles. Willingness-to-pay for vehicle and charging attributes and incentives were calculated and are highly useful in interpreting the latent classes. The results feature interesting geographical variation which is captured at the level of Canadian metropolitan areas.