Climate change and fossil fuel production cuts: assessing global supply-side constraints and policy implications
Climate change and fossil fuel production cuts: assessing global supply-side constraints and policy implications
复制标题
气候变化和化石燃料减产：评估全球供应方限制和政策影响
作者：
Nicolas Gaulin;Philippe Le Billon
摘要本文介绍了第一个全球数据库的供应方气候倡议，寻求限制化石燃料的生产。显然，必须将大部分化石燃料储备保持在地下，以使全球气温上升幅度低于工业化前水平2°C。然而，对于为限制化石燃料生产而采取的供应方举措，没有一个全球概览，因此难以跟踪趋势，比较各国的努力，并评估不同供应方做法的有效性。本文介绍的化石燃料削减数据库确定了1988年至2017年期间在106个国家实施的7种主要供应方方法的1302项举措。通过记录时间和地理模式，我们发现在过去十年中，供应方举措的数量迅速增长，而且在世界各地的采用情况极不均衡。大多数倡议都发生在经济上对化石燃料生产依赖程度较低和化石燃料出口有限的国家，加拿大和挪威在国家一级以及美国在国家以下一级的部分例外。我们讨论的政策影响和需要进一步研究，以确定采用的因素，有效性和政策影响。关于一系列供应方举措的文件提醒人们，必须将化石燃料生产的制约因素与需求方干预措施放在同等地位加以分析和考虑，包括在政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的评估报告中加以分析和考虑。在过去十年中，供应方限制举措有所增加，这表明政策的采纳和潜在的缓解影响正在增加。供应方举措明确强调主要碳生产者的关键作用和责任，并有助于调动对加强问责制的需求。供应方倡议有多种形式，可以适合从民间社会组织到政府等不同行为者的能力。供应方的举措可以有效地补充需求方的措施，帮助解决搭便车问题。化石燃料生产商需要建立更大的联盟，以解决不均衡的采用问题，防止生产搬迁，并帮助生产商从化石燃料过渡。
ABSTRACT This paper presents the first global database of supply-side climate initiatives seeking to constrain fossil fuel production. There is a clear imperative to keep a large proportion of fossil fuel reserves underground to keep global temperature rise under 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, there is no global overview of supply-side initiatives taken to constrain fossil fuel production, making it difficult to track trends, compare efforts across countries, and assess the effectiveness of different supply-side approaches. The Fossil Fuel Cuts Database presented here identifies 1302 initiatives implemented between 1988 and 2017 in 106 countries across the seven major types of supply-side approaches. Documenting temporal and geographical patterns, we show a rapid growth in the number of supply-side initiatives taken during the past decade and their highly uneven adoption across the world. Most initiatives occurred in countries with low economic dependence on fossil fuel production and limited fossil fuel exports, with the partial exception of Canada and Norway at the national level, and the US at the sub-national level. We discuss policy implications and the need for further research to identify adoption factors, effectiveness, and policy implications. The documentation of a wide range of supply-side initiatives serves as a reminder that constraints on fossil fuel production need to be analysed and considered on a par with demand-side interventions, including in Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Key policy insights Supply-side constraint initiatives have increased in the past decade, suggesting growing policy take-up and potential mitigation impacts. Supply-side initiatives clearly emphasize the key role and responsibility of major carbon producers, and help mobilize demand for greater accountability. Supply-side initiatives take many forms and can suit the capabilities of different actors, from civil society organizations to governments. Supply-side initiatives can usefully complement demand-side measures and help tackle free-rider problems. Larger coalitions of fossil fuel producers are required to address uneven adoption, prevent the relocation of production, and help producers transition away from fossil fuels.