Global Sensitivity Analysis in Life-Cycle Assessment of Early-Stage Technology using Detailed Process Simulation: Application to Dialkylimidazolium Ionic Liquid Production.

Global Sensitivity Analysis in Life-Cycle Assessment of Early-Stage Technology using Detailed Process Simulation: Application to Dialkylimidazolium Ionic Liquid Production.
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使用详细过程模拟的早期技术生命周期评估中的全局敏感性分析:应用于二烷基咪唑离子液体生产。

DOI:
10.1021/acssuschemeng.3c00547
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发表时间:
2023-05-08
影响因子:
8.4
通讯作者:
Chachuat, Benoit
Chachuat, Benoit
中科院分区:
化学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Baaqel, Husain A.;Bernardi, Andrea;Hallett, Jason P.;Guillen-Gosalbez, Gonzalo;Chachuat, Benoit

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在生产规模上评估早期技术的环境绩效的能力对于可持续的工艺开发至关重要。本文提出了一种系统的方法,在生命周期评估(LCA)的这些技术使用全球敏感性分析(GSA)加上详细的过程模拟器和LCA数据库的不确定性量化。这种方法考虑到了背景和前景生命周期清单的不确定性,并通过将多个背景流程(无论是前景流程的下游还是上游)集中在一起来实现,以减少敏感性分析中的因素数量。最后以两种二烷基咪唑类离子液体为例,对该方法进行了验证。未能占前景的过程中的不确定性,以及背景的不确定性被证明低估了预测的变化的终点环境影响的一个因素的两个。方差为基础的GSA进一步揭示,只有少数前景和背景不确定参数的贡献显着的总方差在终点环境影响。除了强调需要考虑早期技术LCA中的前景不确定性外,这些结果还说明了GSA如何在LCA中做出更可靠的决策。新兴技术生命周期评估中前景和背景不确定性的结合。
The ability to assess the environmental performance of early-stage technologies at production scale is critical for sustainable process development. This paper presents a systematic methodology for uncertainty quantification in life-cycle assessment (LCA) of such technologies using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) coupled with a detailed process simulator and LCA database. This methodology accounts for uncertainty in both the background and foreground life-cycle inventories, and is enabled by lumping multiple background flows, either downstream or upstream of the foreground processes, in order to reduce the number of factors in the sensitivity analysis. A case study comparing the life-cycle impacts of two dialkylimidazolium ionic liquids is conducted to illustrate the methodology. Failure to account for the foreground process uncertainty alongside the background uncertainty is shown to underestimate the predicted variance of the end-point environmental impacts by a factor of two. Variance-based GSA furthermore reveals that only few foreground and background uncertain parameters contribute significantly to the total variance in the end-point environmental impacts. As well as emphasizing the need to account for foreground uncertainties in LCA of early-stage technologies, these results illustrate how GSA can empower more reliable decision-making in LCA. Combining foreground and background uncertainties in life-cycle assessment of emerging technologies.
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