Broader perspectives for comparing different greenhouse gases
Broader perspectives for comparing different greenhouse gases
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2010.0349
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发表时间：
2011-05-28
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Reisinger, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Manning, Martin;Reisinger, Andy
在过去20年中，在气候变化的背景下，主要通过全球升温潜能值的概念对不同的温室气体进行了比较。这考虑了由脉冲排放引起的气候强迫，并在固定的时间范围内进行了积分。最近的研究表明，全球升温潜能值的不确定性比以前认为的要大得多，虽然这一领域过去的文献提出了替代比较方法，但目前还没有任何明确的替代方法。我们认为，有必要建立一个更广泛的框架来比较温室气体，而这不能通过使用简单的固定汇率来解决。从政策的角度来看，该框架需要明确与气候稳定的目标，我们表明，在这种情况下，气体之间的比较可以更好地解决强迫等效指数（FEI）。从科学的角度来看，比较温室气体的框架还应考虑影响大气成分的各种过程，以及这些过程如何在不同水平上改变气候稳定。我们涵盖了一个更广泛的方法来比较温室气体的基础，总结了全球升温潜能值的不确定性，这些不确定性的FEI与稳定一致，然后到一个框架，解决相应的地球化学过程中的不确定性。
Over the last 20 years, different greenhouse gases have been compared, in the context of climate change, primarily through the concept of global warming potentials (GWPs). This considers the climate forcing caused by pulse emissions and integrated over a fixed time horizon. Recent studies have shown that uncertainties in GWP values are significantly larger than previously thought and, while past literature in this area has raised alternative means of comparison, there is not yet any clear alternative. We propose that a broader framework for comparing greenhouse gases has become necessary and that this cannot be addressed by using simple fixed exchange rates. From a policy perspective, the framework needs to be clearly aligned with the goal of climate stabilization, and we show that comparisons between gases can be better addressed in this context by the forcing equivalence index (FEI). From a science perspective, a framework for comparing greenhouse gases should also consider the full range of processes that affect atmospheric composition and how these may alter for climate stabilization at different levels. We cover a basis for a broader approach to comparing greenhouse gases by summarizing the uncertainties in GWPs, linking those to uncertainties in the FEIs consistent with stabilization, and then to a framework for addressing uncertainties in the corresponding biogeochemical processes.