Integrating climate, water chemistry and propagule pressure indicators into aquatic species distribution models
Integrating climate, water chemistry and propagule pressure indicators into aquatic species distribution models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106060
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Alonso, Alvaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gallardo, Belinda;Castro-Diez, Pilar;Alonso, Alvaro
物种分布模型经常被用来预测气候影响栖息地条件的假设下，入侵物种的扩张。在这里，我们研究了决定水生生物传播、建立和影响的两个额外因素的影响：繁殖压力和水化学。我们的案例研究物种是新西兰泥螺（Potamopyrgus antipodarum，Tateidae，Mollusca），欧洲100种最严重的入侵物种之一（气候、水化学和繁殖体压力）和两个尺度（伊比利亚半岛与埃布罗河流域）的Maxent算法。繁殖体压力提高了模型的准确性，并在伊比利亚半岛尺度上将易受入侵的区域扩大了16%，在流域尺度上扩大了36%。在繁殖体压力指标中，可接近性是物种分布的最重要指标（33-35%的贡献），说明了人为传播的水生入侵者的作用。集水模型整合气候，繁殖压力和水化学指标是最好的选择，优先考虑最容易受到殖民化的河段，其特点是高温，人为影响和水污染（硝酸盐浓度）。根据我们的模型，高风险地区包括地中海和北大西洋海岸，西班牙中部，以及埃布罗河流域的低地。基于这项研究，我们建议包括繁殖压力的指标，如可达性，以反映入侵的机会，并利用水化学进一步优先考虑最适合入侵的河段。我们的结论是，在多个尺度的分布模型集成指标是可行的，在他们的预测跨尺度一致，并显示出巨大的潜力，以优化管理资源，以预防和早期消除水生入侵物种。
Species distribution models are frequently used to anticipate the expansion of invasive species under the assumption that climate affects habitat conditions. Here, we investigated the influence of two additional factors that determine the spread, establishment, and impact of aquatic organisms: propagule pressure and water chemistry.Our case study species is the New Zealand Mud Snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum, Tateidae, Mollusca), one of the 100 worst invasive species in Europe.We calibrated species distribution models combining three types of indicators (climate, water chemistry, and propagule pressure), and two scales (Iberian Peninsula vs. Ebro River catchment) using the Maxent algorithm.Propagule pressure improved the accuracy of models and enlarged the area susceptible to invasion by 16% at the Iberian Peninsula scale, and by 36% at the catchment scale. Among propagule pressure indicators, accessibility was the single most important indicator of the species distribution (33-35% contribution), illustrating the role of human-mediated dispersal for aquatic invaders.The catchment model integrating climate, propagule pressure and water chemistry indicators was the best option to prioritize river segments most vulnerable to colonization, characterized by high temperature, human influence and water pollution (nitrate concentration).High risk areas according to our models include the Mediterranean and North Atlantic coasts, central Spain, and the lowlands of the Ebro River catchment.Based on this study, we recommend including indicators of propagule pressure such as accessibility to reflect the opportunity to invade, and using water chemistry to further prioritize the river stretches most suitable to invasion. We conclude that distribution models integrating indicators at multiple scales are feasible, consistent in their predictions across scales, and show great potential to optimize management resources towards the prevention and early eradication of aquatic invasive species.