THE KERMACK-MCKENDRICK EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD THEOREM - DISCUSSION
THE KERMACK-MCKENDRICK EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD THEOREM - DISCUSSION
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DOI：
10.1016/s0092-8240(05)80039-4
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发表时间：
1991-01-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ANDERSON, RM
本文回顾了Kermack和McKendrick关于病毒和细菌感染因子在宿主群体内传播动力学的简单数学模型的发展工作。注意力的焦点集中在易感宿主的阈值密度的概念，以触发流行病和最近的扩展，这一想法所表达的基本或病例生殖感染率的定义。本文的主体部分考察了基本Kermack-McKendrick模型的最新发展，重点是描述确定感染者和易感者之间传播过程中各种类型异质性的确定性模型。特别注意的作用，行为异质性的框架内的接触或混合矩阵，其中定义了“谁从谁获得感染”。
The paper reviews the work of Kermack and McKendrick on the development of simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of viral and bacterial infectious agents within population of hosts. The focus of attention is centred on the notion of a threshold density of susceptible hosts to trigger an epidemic and recent extensions of this idea as expressed in the definition of a basic or case reproductive rate of infection. The main body of the paper examines recent developments of the basic Kermack-McKendrick model with an emphasis on deterministic models that describe various types of heterogeneity in the processes that determine transmission between infected and susceptible persons. Particular attention is given to the role of behavioural heterogeneity within the framework of a contact or mixing matrix which defines "who acquires infection from whom".