Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes.
Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms14042
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发表时间：
2017-01-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Hilborn R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cline TJ;Schindler DE;Hilborn R
自然资源及其市场的突然变化是对人类社会的普遍挑战。建设具有复原力的社会生态系统需要采取能够抵御不确定性和制度变迁的方法。收获多样化的自然资源组合，并根据变化调整组合，可以稳定依赖自然资源及其市场的经济体，这两者都容易发生不可预测的变化。在这里，我们使用渔业捕捞和收入数据从阿拉斯加渔业社区超过34年来测试是否多样化和营业额的组成渔业机会增加了经济稳定性在1989年的主要海洋和市场制度的转变。超过85%的社区在这些政权更迭后渔业收入减少。然而，具有最高投资组合多样性的社区以及那些可以机会主义地改变其收获的资源构成的社区，收入变化微不足道，甚至是积极的。保持经济机会的多样性和实现营业额，有助于依赖可再生资源的社区在面临不确定的未来时实现可持续性。依赖自然资源的经济体可以通过积极主动的风险缓冲办法，增强对生态系统和市场突变的抵御能力。Cline等人利用阿拉斯加渔业的数据表明，1989年，依赖多样化渔业的社区对重大海洋和市场制度变化的适应力更强。
Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures. Economies dependent on natural resources could gain resilience to abrupt ecosystem and market shifts through proactive risk-buffering approaches. Using data from Alaskan fisheries, Cline et al. show that communities relying on diverse fisheries were more resilient to major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989.