Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015.
Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015.
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DOI：
10.1371/currents.outbreaks.95fbc4a8fb4695e049baabfc2fc8289f
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发表时间：
2015-01-26
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Linthicum, Kenneth J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chretien, Jean-Paul;Anyamba, Assaf;Linthicum, Kenneth J
背景技术背景：厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）是一种全球气候现象，通过干旱，洪水和其他极端气候影响全球人类传染病风险。2014年夏秋季和2015年冬季，美国国家海洋和大气管理局发布的厄尔尼诺观察报告评估了北方半球秋季和冬季可能的厄尔尼诺发展，持续到2015年春季。方法：我们确定了一些地理区域，如果使用厄尔尼诺指标预测厄尔尼诺发生，（海表温度[SST]，向外长波辐射[OLR]，和降雨异常）和文献回顾厄尔尼诺-传染病associations.RESULTS：SST在赤道太平洋和西印度洋异常升高在2014年8月至10月，符合发展中的弱厄尔尼诺事件。在全球降水模式中，与当地气候的联系是明显的，在印度尼西亚和东南亚沿海地区有正的OLR异常（比平均情况更干燥），而在中国北方、西印度洋、中亚、非洲中北部和东北部、墨西哥/中美洲、美国西南部以及热带太平洋东北部和西南部地区有负的异常。这些条件的持久性可能产生的环境设置有利于增加霍乱，登革热，疟疾，裂谷热，和其他传染病在区域热点地区的传播，在以前的厄尔尼诺事件。讨论和结论：目前的发展弱厄尔尼诺条件可能有重大的潜在影响，在2014年冬季至2015年春季全球公共卫生。在预测的传染病热点地区加强监测和其他准备措施可以减轻对健康的影响。
BACKGROUND: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014 and winter 2015, El Nino Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, assessed likely El Nino development during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, persisting into spring 2015.METHODS: We identified geographic regions where environmental conditions may increase infectious disease transmission if the predicted El Nino occurs using El Nino indicators (Sea Surface Temperature [SST], Outgoing Longwave Radiation [OLR], and rainfall anomalies) and literature review of El Nino-infectious disease associations.RESULTS: SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and western Indian Oceans were anomalously elevated during August-October 2014, consistent with a developing weak El Nino event. Teleconnections with local climate is evident in global precipitation patterns, with positive OLR anomalies (drier than average conditions) across Indonesia and coastal southeast Asia, and negative anomalies across northern China, the western Indian Ocean, central Asia, north-central and northeast Africa, Mexico/Central America, the southwestern United States, and the northeastern and southwestern tropical Pacific. Persistence of these conditions could produce environmental settings conducive to increased transmission of cholera, dengue, malaria, Rift Valley fever, and other infectious diseases in regional hotspots as during previous El Nino events.DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The current development of weak El Nino conditions may have significant potential implications for global public health in winter 2014-spring 2015. Enhanced surveillance and other preparedness measures in predicted infectious disease hotspots could mitigate health impacts.