Regional impacts of climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic
Regional impacts of climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic
复制标题
气候变化对北极和南极的区域影响
DOI：
10.3189/1998aog27-1-543-552
复制
发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
G. Weller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Weller
全球气候变化影响的区域评估是全球变化研究国际项目的一个重要内容。在极地地区，气候模式显示全球温室气体变暖的放大，但各种模式的结果之间存在很大差异，并且对预期变化的幅度和时间存在不确定性。此外，过去几十年观测到的高纬度气候趋势比模式预测的更具有区域性和不均匀性。作为评估可能的气候影响的第一步，将模式结果与温度、降水、海冰范围、永久冻土状态和其他冰冻圈参数变化的观测结果进行比较。虽然对变化的长期预测仍存在相当大的不确定性，但模式结果与按季节在较短时间尺度上观测到的趋势之间存在一定的一致性。过去几十年在北极陆地上观测到的变暖与相应的观测到的冰川质量、平衡、永久冻土融化的雪覆盖减少相匹配，在较小程度上与海冰范围的减少相匹配。在南极洲，南极半岛和罗斯海地区的变暖与冰架面积的大幅减少和麦克默多干谷湖泊冰厚的减少有关。全球温室变暖未来的主要影响可能包括冻土融化及其对生态系统和人类的影响；北极和南大洋海洋生态系统生产力的变化：对渔业、石油和其他人类活动的经济影响；以及对北方土著居民的社会影响。其中一些影响将产生积极的后果，但大多数影响可能是有害的。虽然未来存在不确定性，但可以证明，过去几十年极地地区的气候变化已经产生了重大影响，如果目前的趋势继续下去，这种影响将变得更加明显。
Regional assessments of impacts due to global climate change are a high priority in the international programs on global-change research. in the polar regions, climate models indicate an amplification of global greenhouse warming, but there are large differences between the results of various models, and uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of the expected changes. Also, the observed high-latitude climate trends over the past few decades are much more regional and patchy than predicted by the models. As a first step in assessing possible climate impacts, model results are compared with observations of changes in temperature, precipitation, sea-ice extent, the permafrost regime and other cryospheric parameters. While considerable uncertainties remain in the long-term prediction of change, there is some agreement between model results and observed trends by season on shorter time-scales, The warming observed over the land masses of the Arctic over the past few decades is matched by corresponding observed decreases in snow cover the glacier mass, balances, by thawing of the permafrost, and to a lesser degree by reductions in sea-ice extent. in Antarctica, warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea regions is associated with large decreases in ice-shelf areas and reduced ice thicknesses on the lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Major future impacts due to global greenhouse warming are likely to include permafrost thawing on and and its consequences for ecosystems and humans; changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems in the Arctic and Southern Ocean: economic impacts on fisheries, petroleum and other human activities; and social impacts on northern indigenous populations. Some of these impacts will have positive ramifications, but most are likely to be detrimental. While uncertainties exist about the future, climate change in the polar regions during the past few decades can be shown to have had major impacts already which will become much mole pronounced if present trends continue.