Analysing extinction risk in parrots using decision trees
Analysing extinction risk in parrots using decision trees
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DOI：
10.1007/s10531-005-4316-1
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Sullivan, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Martin J.;Fielding, Alan;Sullivan, Matthew
比较分析技术已成功应用于最近的许多尝试中，以确定与当前灭绝威胁相关的物种特征，尽管很少用于预测哪些物种将来可能受到威胁。尽管风险预测显然是一个优先事项，但此类分析因所使用的物种性状之间可能存在非线性和非加性关系的事实而受到损害。决策树分析可以适应这种关系，在这里它被用来探索影响鹦鹉灭绝风险的因素。结果首先验证了简单的生物学和生物地理特征可以将受威胁物种与非受威胁物种区分开。还可以预测哪些物种将来可能受到威胁。该方法的用途不是测试基于进化的假设来解释灭绝风险，而是一种确认和/或预测风险水平的简单实用的方法。对于众所周知的分类群，它可用于确认当前的 IUCN 威胁类别，并确定在下次审查该分类群时哪些物种应受到最密切的关注。对于鲜为人知的群体，它可以用来预测来自分类物种小群体的未分类物种的威胁类别。
Comparative analysis techniques have been successfully applied in a number of recent attempts to identify the species traits associated with a current threat of extinction although less often to predict which species may become threatened in the future. Although prediction of risk is obviously a priority, such analyses are undermined by the fact that there may be non-linear and non-additive relationships between the species traits used. A Decision Tree analysis can accommodate with such relationships and here it is used to explore factors affecting extinction risk in parrots. The results firstly verify that simple biological and biogeographical traits can separate threatened from non-threatened species. It is also possible to predict which species are likely to become threatened in the future. The utility of the method is not in testing evolutionary-based hypotheses to explain extinction risk, rather it is a simple and practical method of confirming and/or predicting levels of risk. For well known taxonomic groups it could be used to confirm current IUCN threat categories and identify which species should receive closest attention when the group is next reviewed. For poorly known groups it could be used to predict categories of threat for unclassified species from small groups of classified ones.