Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean
Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab506d
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Sharma, Anjali
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Binsted, Matthew;Iyer, Gokul;Sharma, Anjali
实现《巴黎协定》的近期目标（国家自主贡献，NDC）和长期温度目标可能会导致碳密集型资产在其使用寿命结束之前提前退役或搁浅。我们使用综合评估模型来量化《巴黎协定》对拉丁美洲和加勒比地区 (LAC) 搁浅资产的影响，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区是世界上电力行业碳密集度最低的发展中地区。我们发现，在未来的一系列情景中，实现巴黎目标将导致 37-900 亿美元的搁浅和价值 1.9-2.6 万亿美元的电力部门资本投资（2021-2050 年）。加强 NDC 可以将搁浅成本降低 27%-40%。此外，虽然在政治上保护发电厂免于过早退役或增加其他部门（例如土地利用）的作用也可以减少电力部门搁浅，但此类行动可能会使缓解措施更加昂贵并对社会产生负面影响。例如，我们发现，避免电力部门的资产搁浅会使粮食价格上涨 13%，这表明对拉美和加勒比地区粮食安全的影响。我们的分析表明，即使在低排放发展中国家，气候目标也与投资决策相关。
Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of $37-90 billion and investment of $1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27%-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.