Dynamic downscaling of near-surface air temperature at the basin scale using WRF-a case study in the Heihe River Basin, China
Dynamic downscaling of near-surface air temperature at the basin scale using WRF-a case study in the Heihe River Basin, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11707-012-0306-2
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发表时间：
2012-09
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Xiaoduo Pan;Xin Li;Xiaokang Shi;Xujun Han;L. Luo;Liangxu Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaoduo Pan;Xin Li;Xiaokang Shi;Xujun Han;L. Luo;Liangxu Wang
大气环流模式（GCMs）的空间分辨率太粗糙，不能代表许多环境模拟和影响评估所需的区域、流域和局地尺度的区域气候变化。天气研究和预报模式（WRF）是下一代完全可压缩的欧拉非静力中尺度预报模式，具有运行时静力选项。该模型不仅适用于千米尺度到数千千米尺度的天气气候降尺度，而且也适用于水文模拟所需的气象参数的提取。本文的目的是验证WRF模拟5公里/1小时的空气温度由中国气象局（CMA）站的每日观测数据，并通过逐时的现场数据的流域联合遥测实验研究项目。逐日检验结果表明，WRF模拟结果与实测资料吻合较好，与各站的R2均大于0.93，各站平均偏差误差（MBE）的绝对值均小于2°C，额济纳、马鬃山和阿拉善3个站的MBE接近于零，R2均大于0.98，可以作为无偏估计。逐时验证表明，WRF模拟能够捕捉到观测资料的基本趋势，各站点的MBE均在2°C左右，R2均大于0.80，最高可达0.95，计算的地面气温序列与观测的地面气温序列呈现出显著相似的趋势。
The spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) is too coarse to represent regional climate variations at the regional, basin, and local scales required for many environmental modeling and impact assessments. Weather research and forecasting model (WRF) is a next-generation, fully compressible, Euler non-hydrostatic mesoscale forecast model with a run-time hydrostatic option. This model is useful for downscaling weather and climate at the scales from one kilometer to thousands of kilometers, and is useful for deriving meteorological parameters required for hydrological simulation too. The objective of this paper is to validate WRF simulating 5 km/1 h air temperatures by daily observed data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, and by hourly in-situ data of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research Project. The daily validation shows that the WRF simulation has good agreement with the observed data; theR2between the WRF simulation and each station is more than 0.93; the absolute of meanbias error (MBE) for each station is less than 2°C; and the MBEs of Ejina, Mazongshan and Alxa stations are near zero, withR2is more than 0.98, which can be taken as an unbiased estimation. The hourly validation shows that the WRF simulation can capture the basic trend of observed data, the MBE of each site is approximately 2°C, theR2of each site is more than 0.80, with the highest at 0.95, and the computed and observed surface air temperature series show a significantly similar trend.